Alzheimer's & Dementia
Volume 14, Issue 2 p. 121-129
Featured Article

Forecasting the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease in the United States

Ron Brookmeyer, 

Corresponding Author

Ron Brookmeyer

Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Corresponding author. Tel.: 310-825-2187; Fax: 310-267-2113.

E-mail address: [email protected]

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Nada Abdalla, 

Nada Abdalla

Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

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Claudia H. Kawas, 

Claudia H. Kawas

Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

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María M. Corrada, 

María M. Corrada

Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA

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First published: 06 December 2017
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2017.10.009
Citations: 242
R.B. reports fees from Takeda Inc. for serving as a member of a data safety monitoring board. N.A. has nothing to disclose. C.H.K. has nothing to disclose. M.M.C. has nothing to disclose.

Abstract

Introduction

We forecast the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and evaluated potential impacts of primary and secondary preventions in the United States.

Methods

We used a multistate model incorporating biomarkers for preclinical AD with US population projections.

Results

Approximately 6.08 million Americans had either clinical AD or mild cognitive impairment due to AD in 2017 and that will grow to 15.0 million by 2060. In 2017, 46.7 million Americans had preclinical AD (amyloidosis, neurodegeneration, or both), although many may not progress to clinical disease during their lifetimes. Primary and secondary preventions have differential impact on future disease burden.

Discussion

Because large numbers of persons are living with preclinical AD, our results underscore the need for secondary preventions for persons with existing AD brain pathology who are likely to develop clinical disease during their lifetimes as well as primary preventions for persons without preclinical disease.

Highlights

  • Forecasted preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the United States using multistate model.

  • Most persons living with AD brain pathology do not have clinical disease.

  • Fifteen million persons in the United States will be living with mild cognitive impairment due to AD or clinical AD by 2060.

  • Primary and secondary preventions have differential impacts on future disease burden.