Volume 17, Issue 12 p. 1966-1975
FEATURED ARTICLE

Population estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment in the United States (2020–2060)

Kumar B. Rajan

Corresponding Author

Kumar B. Rajan

Rush Institute for Healthy Aging, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Correspondence

Kumar B. Rajan, Rush Institute for Healthy Aging, Rush University Medical Center, 1700 W Van Buren St, Suite 245, Chicago, IL 60612.

E-mail: [email protected]

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Jennifer Weuve

Jennifer Weuve

Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA

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Lisa L. Barnes

Lisa L. Barnes

Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA

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Elizabeth A. McAninch

Elizabeth A. McAninch

Rush Institute for Healthy Aging, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA

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Robert S. Wilson

Robert S. Wilson

Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA

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Denis A. Evans

Denis A. Evans

Rush Institute for Healthy Aging, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA

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First published: 27 May 2021
Citations: 234

Abstract

Introduction

The estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment provides an understanding of the disease burden.

Methods

We estimated people with cognitive impairment using a quasibinomial regression model in 10,342 participants with cognitive test scores.

Results

The 2020 US Census–adjusted prevalence of clinical AD was 11.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.7–11.9): 10.0% among non-Hispanic Whites, 14.0% among Hispanics, and 18.6% among non-Hispanic Blacks. We estimate that in 2020, 6.07 (95% CI = 5.75–6.38) million people were living with clinical AD, which increases to 13.85 (95% CI = 12.98–14.74) million in 2060, 423% higher among Hispanics, 192% higher among Blacks, and 63% higher among Whites. However, there are predicted to be more significant increases in later years among those over 85 and women compared to men.

Discussion

The number of people with clinical AD will increase as the “baby boom” generation reaches older ages, exerting a strong upward influence on disease burden.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

The authors have no conflicts of interest to report.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

De-identified data are available on request for qualified investigators from www.riha.rush.edu/dataportal.html.